How GDP estimates get revised
MoSPI publishes a first estimate of a year's growth before the year ends, then revises it as fuller data arrive: up to six estimates over about four years. Shown here for the 2011-12-base series, which kept every stage.
Real GDP growth: first estimate to latest
Each row is one year. The line runs from the lowest to the highest estimate published for it.
- First estimate
- Revisions in between
- Latest estimate (2011-12 base)
- New 2022-23 series
Show as table
| Year | First estimate | Revisions in between | Latest estimate (2011-12 base) | New 2022-23 series |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7.4% (First Advance Estimate) | – | – | 7.8% (Provisional Estimate) |
| 2024-25 | 6.3% (First Advance Estimate) | 6.4% (Second Advance Estimate) | 6.4% (Provisional Estimate) | 7.2% (First Revised Estimate) |
| 2023-24 | 7.3% (First Advance Estimate) | 7.5% (Second Advance Estimate), 8.1% (Provisional Estimate) | 9.1% (First Revised Estimate) | 7.3% (Final Estimate) |
| 2022-23 | 6.9% (First Advance Estimate) | 7.0% (Second Advance Estimate), 7.2% (Provisional Estimate), 6.9% (First Revised Estimate) | 7.6% (Final Estimate) | – |
| 2021-22 | 9.1% (First Advance Estimate) | 8.9% (Second Advance Estimate), 8.6% (Provisional Estimate), 9.0% (First Revised Estimate) | 9.6% (Second Revised Estimate) | – |
| 2020-21 | −7.7% (First Advance Estimate) | −8.0% (Second Advance Estimate), −7.2% (Provisional Estimate), −6.5% (First Revised Estimate), −5.8% (Second Revised Estimate) | −5.7% (Third Revised Estimate) | – |
| 2019-20 | 5.0% (First Advance Estimate) | 5.0% (Second Advance Estimate), 4.2% (Provisional Estimate), 4.0% (First Revised Estimate), 3.7% (Second Revised Estimate) | 3.8% (Third Revised Estimate) | – |
| 2018-19 | 7.2% (First Advance Estimate) | 7.0% (Second Advance Estimate), 6.8% (Provisional Estimate), 6.1% (First Revised Estimate), 6.5% (Second Revised Estimate) | 6.4% (Third Revised Estimate) | – |
| 2017-18 | 6.5% (First Advance Estimate) | 6.6% (Second Advance Estimate), 6.7% (Provisional Estimate), 7.1% (First Revised Estimate), 7.0% (Second Revised Estimate) | 6.7% (Third Revised Estimate) | – |
| 2016-17 | 7.1% (First Advance Estimate) | 7.1% (Second Advance Estimate), 7.1% (Provisional Estimate), 7.1% (First Revised Estimate), 8.1% (Second Revised Estimate) | 8.3% (Third Revised Estimate) | – |
| 2015-16 | 7.6% (First Advance Estimate) | 7.6% (Provisional Estimate), 7.9% (First Revised Estimate), 8.1% (Second Revised Estimate) | 7.9% (Third Revised Estimate) | – |
| 2014-15 | 7.4% (First Advance Estimate) | 7.3% (Provisional Estimate), 7.2% (First Revised Estimate), 7.1% (Second Revised Estimate) | 7.4% (Third Revised Estimate) | – |
MoSPI national accounts: GDP growth rate at constant prices, as published at each estimate stage.
Every estimate
Real GDP growth (%) at each stage, 2011-12 base. Nominal growth is in the downloadable data.
| Year | 1st advance | 2nd advance | Provisional | 1st revised | 2nd revised | 3rd revised | Final | New series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7.4% | 7.8% (Provisional) | ||||||
| 2024-25 | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% (1st revised) | ||||
| 2023-24 | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.3% (Final) | |||
| 2022-23 | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | |||
| 2021-22 | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.6% | |||
| 2020-21 | −7.7% | −8.0% | −7.2% | −6.5% | −5.8% | −5.7% | ||
| 2019-20 | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | ||
| 2018-19 | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | ||
| 2017-18 | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | ||
| 2016-17 | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | ||
| 2015-16 | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | |||
| 2014-15 | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% |
When each estimate comes out
| Estimate | When |
|---|---|
| First Advance Estimate | about 1 week after the year's 9th month (early January) |
| Second Advance Estimate | end of February, before the year ends |
| Provisional Estimate | end of May, 2 months after the year ends |
| First Revised Estimate | about 1 year after the year ends |
| Second Revised Estimate | about 2 years after the year ends |
| Third Revised Estimate | about 3 years after the year ends |
From 2025, MoSPI's revision policy calls the last revision the "Final Estimate". The new 2022-23 series is only available as its latest estimates (MoSPI's data service keeps no earlier ones), so this site saves each release as it comes out and the history of the new series will build up from here.